# Phase 8 Part D: REER Z×NFA with Lagged NFA

| Model | Z₁ | p | Z₁×NFA | p | R² | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1: Z → REER (baseline) | -0.526 | 0.307 | — | — | 0.028 | 1572 |
| D2: Z + Z×NFA (contemp) | -0.426 | 0.419 | -0.985** | 0.025 | 0.020 | 1572 |
| D3: Z + Z×NFA_lag | -0.492 | 0.347 | -1.166*** | 0.010 | 0.010 | 1572 |

*Using lagged NFA/GDP reduces endogeneity concern. The Z×NFA interaction is a conditional correlation, not a causal estimate, since NFA itself reflects prior demographic-driven flows.*
